AI is taking over even in places where nobody asked for it. (Seriously, Facebook–nobody wants their friends to respond with AI.) Rightly, people are concerned. Anytime disruptive technology is used, it affects the job market.
A recent survey from Resume Now detailed concerns people have about AI and their jobs. It’s an interesting look at what might happen, but are concerns realistic? Here is the difference between surveys and experts.
Experts: Because no one knows precisely what will happen in the future or how the technology will play out, some fears are grounded. However, Josh Bersin, founder of Bersin by Deloitte, “the leading research and advisory company for corporate learning, talent management, and HR,” has a much more positive view.
Bersin says, in response to concerns about AI destroying jobs:
“Not true. I heard this story during the mid-2000s when The University of Oxford published reports that 47% of jobs would be eliminated by automation. At that point in time, The Economist, McKinsey, and others predicted that computers would wipe out jobs in retail, food service, accounting, banking, and finance. And we saw charts and graphs which detailed which tasks, jobs, and careers would be eliminated.
“Now, looking back, it’s not clear that any of this occurred. We have the lowest unemployment rate in 55 years, demand for front-line workers is at an all-time high, and the need for manufacturing, process, logistics, and tech workers is still unfilled.”
Of course, jobs aren’t the only fear. Tableau, a Salesforce-owned software company, writes that AI has many concerns, but the big fears, like humans being stuck in a Matrix-like situation, are unfounded. The bigger concerns are data privacy, bias, legal issues, and AI harming humans.
The latter is a big concern. Tableau writes, “Another concern, somewhat related to the last, is that AI will be given a beneficial goal but will develop destructive behaviors as it attempts to accomplish that goal. An example of this could be an AI system tasked with something beneficial, such as helping to rebuild an endangered marine creature’s ecosystem. But in doing so, it may decide that other parts of the ecosystem are unimportant and destroy their habitats. And it could also view human intervention to fix or prevent this as a threat to its goal.”
The survey doesn’t discuss why people feel this way, but it’s an interesting question. Will AI make the life part of work-life worse? It’s worth noting that 41 percent overall think AI will negatively impact work-life balance. So, a clear majority think the impact will be positive or neutral.
Experts: Information technology expert Andre Ripla tackled this question on LinkedIn. He writes:
“At its core, the promise of AI is to increase efficiency, productivity, and cost-effectiveness across various industries. By automating repetitive and time-consuming tasks, AI has the potential to alleviate the burden on human workers, freeing up their time and mental resources for more creative, strategic, and fulfilling endeavors.”
If AI takes the busy work, will we have more free time or will the easy tasks be replaced with those that require more workand more effort? It’s something we’ll have to wait and see, but this seems to be driving the next survey data point.
Experts: Ripla continues with an example of a benefit of AI; more flexibility. He writes:
work“Beyond task automation, AI also holds the potential to facilitate more flexible and remote work arrangements. As AI systems become adept at handling tasks that were previously confined to physical workspaces, it could pave the way for more employees to work from home or in distributed teams, reducing the need for lengthy commutes and enabling better integration of work and personal responsibilities.”
Remote work is very popular and working remotely would seem to be a prime way to reduce burnout. After all, taking away a commute seems like an effective way to reduce burnout. However, this may not be the case.
Researchers Matthew Piszczek and Kristie McAlpine found that commutes can help reduce burnout by allowing for a transition from work to home. They write at NPR:
“During the shift to remote work, many people lost this built-in support for these important daily processes. Without the ability to mentally shift gears, people experience role blurring, which can lead to stress. Without mentally disengaging from work, people can experience burnout.”
In addition, a different survey found that “69% of remote employees report increased burnout from digital communication tools.” Having computers do our communication rather than face-to-face does seem to lead to additional burnout. The more automation, the less personal communication, and perhaps the more we are burned out.
Experts: This survey suggests AI will cause burnout, but Wired thinks it’s going the opposite way. Amanda Hoover writes:
“People are using AI at work whether their bosses want them to or not, new data shows. But it’s desperation, not innovation, driving the change.”
Separating burnout from AI is complicated. Burnout happened before AI, obviously, but there are real concerns that AI isn’t relieving burnout. Naturally, younger workers will work the most in an AI environment and suffer from any burnout related to AI at a higher rate than older workers who will retire soon.
However, a working paper from MIT says that generative AI doesn’t lead to burnout and instead increases productivity and worker satisfaction. Because we are only a few years into widespread generative AI usage, it’s difficult to say where this is going in the daily workplace.
Experts: There is no doubt that AI will continue to impact the workplace–the question is whether the impact be positive or negative.
Consulting firm McKinsey has a lot to say about the impact of AI and how the workforce will need to change. In their analysis, they see great growth in STEM related jobs by 2030–up to 30 percent increase. They also expect an increase in higher paying jobs.
However, they predict an 18 percent decrease in office support jobs and a 13 percent decrease in sales and customer service jobs. They predict AI and other advances in technology can do these functions. They write:
“By 2030, our analysis finds that about 27 percent of current hours worked in Europe and 30 percent of hours worked in the United States could be automated, accelerated by gen AI. Our model suggests that roughly 20 percent of hours worked could still be automated even without gen AI, implying a significant acceleration.”
So, even without AI, they believe automation is coming.
Whether this is positive or negative depends on what you want to do for a living. Automation seems scary, but as Josh Bersin pointed out, this isn’t the only technological advance.
McKinsey says for certain that people will need to transition their careers. This will require people to change what they do and how they do it. If that makes you feel positive, great. If negative, that transition can be scary.
Experts are only as good as their data and experience. The real answers will depend on how companies approach AI and how the technology develops. Regardless, employees should focus on what it will take to move forward with their careers–and AI is probably a part of that.
